美国大豆协会周度快报07-21

美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００８年７月２１日）

中国大豆进口车需求保持旺盛

截止６月份的初步数据表明，中国的大豆进口需求继续保持旺盛，而４－６月的这个季度其它国家和地区对大豆和豆粕的需求却十分平淡。尽管全球对大豆和豆粕的需求总体呈旺盛势头，但自１月份以来全球年度需求增幅几乎全部来自中国，特别是在４－６月的这个季度，由于阿根廷６月份的豆粕出口因农场主罢工而下降，全球进口需求增幅更是基本被中国所独占。

就２００８－２００９年度而言，分析人士似乎普遍认为，欧盟对大豆和豆粕的进口量将因本地谷物产量回升而下降，中国的进口需求增长将因国内大豆产量上升而放慢。然而，尽管如此，中国的蛋白粕消费量仍将上升８％。预计前苏联、非洲及西半球将呈现中等幅度的增长，而亚洲国家和地区（不包括中国）预计将出现反弹，这也许会证明是过于乐观。

阿根廷仍在执行新的出口税制

阿根廷副总统觉罗?卡博斯（Julio Cobos）７月１７日在上议院投票反对总统克里斯蒂娜?费尔南德斯用以实施新出口税制的法案，这一反对票打破了原有的均势，将使历时４个月的争议将持续下去。这场争议已经削弱了对政府的支持势力，动摇了投资者的信心。卡博斯也是上议院的领导，在他投出打破僵局的决定性反对票之前，双方票数呈均衡之势。“我认为今天是我一生中最艰难的一天，”卡博斯说。“他们告诉我，出于制度原因，我必须与政府站在同一立场，但我的内心却告诉我不能这样。我投的不是赞同票，而是反对票，愿历史对我做出评判。”

尽管阿根廷上议院以一票的优势否决了大豆出口税计划，但据阿根廷有关方面的报道，政府还没有撤回推行当前税制的１２５号决议。也有人暗示说，此事仍须经下议院再次投票，之前下议院已以微弱优势通过了新税制方案。总而言之，目前的税制仍在实施，下一步的动向存在不确定性。

下议院于本月初批准税率上调措施后，上议院的批准就成了最终批准的关键步骤。政府曾表示将遵守议院做出的决定。基什内尔及其丈夫内斯托尔?基什内尔（前总统，庇隆党领导）主张上调出口税，认为这是重新分配国家财富、抑制国内食品价格的重要举措。基什内尔将农场主罢工定性为政治威胁，称农场主领导“过于贪婪”，是“政变策划者”，这番言论加剧了对立情绪。

罢工致使出口大豆和豆粕受阻，无法从主要出口港罗萨里奥起运，邦基（Bunge）嘉吉（Cargill）等主要企业不得不就自己的阿根廷合约或运往美国或巴西的转运货物而宣称遭遇不可抗力事件。

由于此次阿跟廷大豆出口税上调未获通过，国内大豆播种面积似乎少了一个阻碍继续上升的障碍，过去５年来，全球大豆播种面积的上升主要来自阿根廷。如果阿根廷重新采取以前３５％的固定税率，那么市场所面临的一个长期问题就不复存在了。

美国油籽加工者协会公布６月份压榨数字

今天早晨美国油籽加工者协会公布的６月份压榨量为３６９万吨，远远低于３７３万吨的行业预计。东部玉米带压榨进度的放慢最为明显。根据美国油籽加工者协会的数字，豆油库存数字下降了１．８１万吨，这意味着６月份豆油的国内消费量略低于Informa的预测。相比之下，６月份豆粕的国内消费量比预计低９．０７万吨，连续第三个月低于上年同期水平，中国以外其它国家和地区的豆粕消费量似乎也略有增长。

灾难预付款将获得立法授权

参议员查克?格来斯雷（依阿华州共和党人）和约翰?修恩（南达科达州共和党人）已提出一项立法，该法授权美国农业部在灾难发生的日历年度内向符合标准的农场主预先支付灾难援助款。美国农业部部长谢弗说，２００８年农业法案已确立了新的灾难援助计划，规定任何付款都必须基于一种采用相关作物年度平均价格的公式来计算。根据该提议（编号为Ｓ．３２５１），美国农业部将可以发放不超过预计总额５０％的作物灾难预付款。灾难付款的其余部分将在评定出最终的作物损失后支付。

“当财政委员会起草灾难信托基金条款时，我们总是希望美国农业部能够支付预付款，”格来斯雷在一份报告中说。“很难相信美国农业部会在农场主最需要援助的时候不利用我们给予的自主权来帮助农场主。”格来斯雷是财政委员会的高级共和党员，同时也是参议院农业委员会的一名成员。

“在化肥、燃料及其它物资成本飙升导致经营成本达到纪录高点的情况下，农场主不应非得等到２００９年底才可领取２００８年作物损失的灾难援助，“修恩说。修恩也是农业委员会的一名成员。

除了授权提前支付援助款项外，该法案还规定，美国农业部必须不迟于２００８年１１月１５日起草并发布相关条例，对２００８年农业法案所授权的永久灾难援助计划做出具体规定。

由于大豆生长条件得到改善，大豆类产品期价下跌

大豆类产品在７月１７日收盘时价格下跌，原因有三：第一，人们对夏季天气状况的看法发生改变，第二，阿根廷上议院拒绝了浮动出口税制，第三，整个商品市场出现抛售势头。近期内，市场的主要关注焦点在于天气，近来天气形势对大豆生产比较有利，美国农业部已连续４周提高对大豆长势的评级。８月份大豆期货价格下跌＄１９．１１为＄５５８．８７，９月份下跌＄１８．３７为＄５５４．０９，１１月份下跌＄１８．３７为５５０．４２；８月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄２１．８３为＄４５１．２８，９月＄下跌２１．３８为＄４４５．６６，１０月份下跌＄２１．４９为＄４３２．９８；８月份豆油期货价格下跌＄１４．７７为＄１３９８．１６，９月份下跌＄１４．７７为＄１４０６．３１，１０月份下跌＄１４．７７为＄１４１４．４７。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Soybean Import Demand Remains Strong on China

Preliminary data through June indicates that China’s soybean import demand continues to be strong while import demand elsewhere for soybeans and soybean meal was flat during the April/June quarter. While world import demand for soybeans and meal demand is strong in the aggregate, China has accounted for nearly all of the year-over-year growth since January and essentially all of the growth during the April/June quarter after Argentine soybean meal exports dropped during June because of the farmer strike.

For 2008-09, the general opinion of analysts appears to be that the EU’s combined imports of soybeans and meal will be down because of the rebound in its grain production and that China’s import demand growth will slow because of the rebound in its soybean production. However, this still allows for China’s protein meal consumption to expand by 8 percent. Modest growth is seen for the Former Soviet Union, Africa and the Western Hemisphere, while a rebound is forecast for Other Asia (excluding China) that may prove to be too optimistic.

Argentine Export Tax Still In Place

Argentine Vice President Julio Cobos on July 17 cast a tie-breaking vote in the Senate against a bill backing farm export taxes imposed by President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, extending a four-month dispute that has undermined support for the government and shaken investor confidence. The vote was tied until Cobos, who is also leader of the Senate, broke the deadlock with a deciding vote against. “I think today is the most difficult day of my life,” Cobos said. “They tell me I must go along with the government for institutional reasons, but my heart tells me otherwise. May history judge me, my vote is not for, it’s against.”

Despite the Argentine Senate’s rejection of the soybean export tax plan by one vote, reports out of the country say the Argentine government has yet to revoke resolution 125 which put the tax in place. There are some who signal the matter still must be voted on yet again by the country’s lower House, which narrowly had approved the plan. However, the bottom line is that the tax is still in place and some uncertainty exists over the next step in this process.

The lower House approved the tax hikes earlier this month and the Senate’s approval was the key remaining step for final ratification. The government has said it will abide by the decision. Kirchner and her husband, former President Néstor Kirchner, who leads the Peronist bloc, have justified the higher taxes as important to redistribute the country’s wealth and hold down Argentine food prices. But the Kirchners have widened divisions in the country by portraying the farmers’ strikes as a political threat, calling farm leaders “greedy” and “coup plotters.”

Exports of soybeans and soyoil have been blocked from leaving the major export port of Rosario, forcing major companies such as Bunge and Cargill to declare force majeure on their Argentine contracts or switch shipments to the United States or Brazil.

The rejection of export tax on Argentine soybeans appears to have removed an impediment for the continuation of the expansion of soybean production in a country that has accounted for most of the expansion in the world’s soybean production over the past 5 years. This takes away one the long-term questions for the market if the Argentine government reverts to the previous fixed tax rate of 35 percent.

NOPA June Crush Recap

The NOPA crush for June was reported this morning at 3.69 million tonnes, well below the trade’s expectation of 3.73 million tonnes. The slow down in the crush was most pronounced in the Eastern Corn Belt. The 18,100 tonnes drop in NOPA’s soybean oil stocks implied June soybean oil domestic usage that was a bit larger than Informa expected. In contrast, June soybean meal domestic disappearance was 90,700 tonnes smaller than anticipated and below year-ago levels for the third consecutive month. Outside of China, there appears to be little growth in world soybean meal consumption.

Legislation Would Authorize Advance Disaster Payments

Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and John Thune (R-S.D.) have introduced legislation that would authorize USDA to make advance disaster payment to eligible farmers in the calendar year in which the disaster occurs. According to Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer, the 2008 farm bill which established the new disaster assistance program requires that any payments be based on a formula that uses the season average price for the crop in question as part of the calculation. Under the proposal (S. 3251), USDA would be able to issue advance crop disaster payments of no less than 50 percent of projected final payments. The remainder of the disaster payments would be issued once final crop losses are determined.

“When the Finance Committee wrote the Disaster Trust Fund provision, it was always our intent that USDA would be able to give advance payments,” said Grassley in a statement. “It’s hard to believe that USDA wouldn’t use the discretion we gave them to help out farmers when they need it most.” Grassley is the ranking Republican on the Finance Committee, and also is a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee.

“With skyrocketing chemical fertilizer, fuel, and other input costs resulting in record operating expenses, farmers should not have to wait until late 2009 for disaster assistance for 2008 crop disaster losses,” Thune added. Thune, too, is a member of the Agriculture Committee.

In addition to authorizing advance disaster payments, the bill also includes language that requires USDA to draft and publish regulations governing the permanent disaster programs authorized by the 2008 farm bill no later than November 15, 2008.

Soy Complex Lower As Conditions Improve For Favorable Crop Development

The soy complex closed lower on July 17 reflecting the changing perceptions of summer weather conditions, the Argentine Senate’s rejection of the sliding-scale export tax scheme, and a commodity-wide sell-off. In the near term, the market’s primary focus is on the weather, which has been largely favorable for crop development and USDA’s condition ratings have improved for four consecutive weeks. August bean futures closed down $19.11, finishing at $558.87; September lost $18.37, closing at $554.09; and November was down $18.37, ending at $550.42. August meal decreased $21.83 closing at $451.28; September was $21.38 lower, finishing at $445.66; and October meal closed down $21.49, ending at $432.98. August soyoil decreased $14.77 to finish at $1398.16; September was down $14.77, closing at $1406.31; and October was $14.77 lower, closing at $1414.47.