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众议院农业委员会完成对农业法案的审议
众议院农业委员会上周完成了对２００７年农业法案的审议。７月１８日，该委员会通过了法案中的商品条款和环境条款，７月１９日完成了对其余９项条款的审议。委员会还以口头表决形式通过了１０４页的管理人员整体修订案，内容主要涉及付款上限及柯林∙彼特森（明尼苏达州民主党人）主席提出的其它重点事项。现在修订案将提交众议院法规委员会，法规委员会还将收到众议院筹款委员会提交的一份提案，该提案将为约４０亿美元的营养项目额外开支提供资金补偿。
整体修订案还规定，三年累计调整后毛收入超过１００万美元的人无权领取农业项目付款及环保付款。目前农业项目的付款上限是２５０万美元，除非７５％的收入来自农业或农业相关活动。修订案还规定，调整后毛收入介于５０－１００万美元的人也无权得到付款，除非其收入的至少三分之二来自农业。
彼特森说，收入上限经过这样的调整，今后５年可节约２．２６亿美元。美国农业部说，将收入达到或超过１００万美元的人排除以后，每年可节约１０００万美元。农业部副部长查克∙克纳此前表示，收入达到这一水平的人不到９６００。
那些担心年度固定付款额下降的豆农们可能会成为本法案的受益者。此类付款是农民们在可以预见的将来有望得到的唯一一种作物补贴，因为大豆价格在生物柴油需求猛增的情况下出现大幅上升。尽管此前有传闻说，为向其它项目提供资金，固定付款额会下降，但新法案却未对固定付款额作任何改变。
彼特森和众议院发言人南西∙皮罗赛（加利福尼亚州民主党人）目前正在考虑全体众议院审议该措施的具体时间。此前曾有迹象表明，立法提案可能在７月２６日就会提交到众议院，但现在看来，众议院更有可能在７月３０日的那一周开始审议法案，不过，众议院所面临的其它一些紧迫事项可能会将法案审议推迟到国会休会期过后，甚至推迟到９月份。
彼特森说，他从民主党领导人那里得到的初步承诺是，审议会在７月３０日的那一周进行，刚好赶在８月份休会期开始前。“审议会如期进行，除非发生突发事件。审议需要大约一天的时间，”彼特森说。但是，皮罗赛说：“有那么多议题需要讨论。我希望对法案的审议有个规划。不过我们还是要看具体日程是如何安排的。”
艾奥瓦州生物柴油行业建立起自己的组织
艾奥瓦州的生物柴油生产者、销售者及豆农组建了一个独立于乙醇生产者的专门组织，名为艾奥瓦生物柴油委员会。该组织执行董事兰迪∙奥尔森说，委员会的经费有两个来源，一是艾奥瓦州大豆基金会收取的大豆扣款，二是会员费。过去曾担任艾奥瓦州大豆基金会高级营销经理的奥尔森说，创立该委员会是因为需要有一个“完整的生物柴油链”来推广生物柴油并推动业内相关工作及政策的进展。
艾奥瓦州有１３个已投产的生物柴油工厂，年产量为２．５８５亿加仑，另外还有３个在建工厂，建成后的产能可达９５００万加仑。
东南亚豆粕库存偏低
东南亚可能会成为一个主要的豆粕进口市场。印度大豆加工者协会的拉贾什∙阿戈拉瓦说，当本作物年度于９月份结束时，印度豆粕出口量可能会从去年同期的４１０万吨下降到３５０万吨左右。去年库存量之所以较高，主要是因为当时国内有大量上年转入库存。
“目前，东南亚地区的库存较低，无论是在台湾、泰国，还是在印尼，” 阿戈拉瓦说。“业务仍在进行，目前豆粕的出口还没有出现问题。”他说，由于本作物年度临近结束，国内市场的大豆供应开始趋于紧张。
棕榈油价格过高，迫使买方转向其它油类
随着马来西亚毛棕榈油价格的不断高涨，买方已开始转向其它油类。马来西亚种植业及商品部长彼特∙钦上周说，“一旦毛棕榈油及棕榈油精价格过高，消费者就有可能把目标转向价格低一些的其它油类。”他说。
以前，毛棕榈油价格通常低于其它油类。“但现在，两者之间的差价正在缩小。因此，欧洲已开始有人转向传统油类了，”说到这，他还指出，对欧洲的毛棕榈油出口量已开始小幅下降。
另据相关消息，由于２００６年的旱灾影响了作物生长，今年上半年印尼的棕榈油产量可能低于预计。印尼棕榈油协会总裁迪罗姆∙班冈说，今年的棕榈油产量看来不会达到以前预计的１７２０－１７４０万吨，这也是造成目前价格上涨的一个原因。
由于豆油受到能源价格的支持，大豆类产品期价上升
由于能源价格为豆油提供了支持，豆粕和豆油出现了同等幅度的价格上涨，因此７月１９日收盘时多数大豆类产品期价上升。接下来的天气状况将是决定大豆单位产量的最重要因素。尽管美国的产量前景一直是大豆市场的主要影响因素，但南美的产量仍是一个更长远的市场影响因素。美国大豆的最终产量及２００７－２００８年度的出口前景将在很大程度上决定着明年南美需要达到多少产量以及南美大豆今年秋季在市场上的潜在购买量会有多少。８月份大豆期货价格上升＄１．７５为＄３１４．５２，９月份上升＄１．７５为＄３１７．１４，１１月份上升＄２．０２为３２４．０８；８月份豆粕期货价格上升＄０．９９为＄２５０．７７，９月上升＄０．９９为＄２５４．１９，１０月份上升＄３．０９，为＄２５６．９５；８月份豆油期货价格上升＄２．８７，为＄８２９．５９，９月份上升＄３．０９为＄８３６．４３，１０月份上升＄２．４３，为＄８４２．１６。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
House Agriculture Committee Completes Work On Farm Bill
The House Agriculture Committee last week completed its work on the 2007 farm bill. On July 18, the committee approved the commodity and conservation titles of the bill, and on July 19 completed work on the remaining nine titles. The panel also approved by voice vote the 104-page manager’s en bloc amendment dealing with pay caps and other of Chairman Collin Peterson’s (D-Minn.) priority issues. That amendment now will be sent to the House Rules Committee where it will be joined with a proposal by the House Ways & Means Committee that would provide offsets for approximately $4 billion in additional spending for nutrition programs.
The en bloc amendment also includes language banning anyone whose three year adjusted gross income exceeds $1 million from receiving farm program and conservation payments. The current cap on farm program payments is $2.5 million, unless 75 percent of the income is derived from agriculture or agriculturally related enterprises. The approved proposal also would eliminate payments to anyone whose AGI ranges from $500,000 to $1 million unless at least two-thirds of that amount is derived from farming.
Peterson says adjusting the income cap in this way would save $226 million over five years. USDA has said the ban those making $1 million or more would save $10 million per year. Agriculture Deputy Secretary Chuck Conner earlier said fewer than 9,600 individuals fall into this income category.
Soybean farmers who were worried that their fixed annual payments might be cut are likely winners with this bill. Those payments are about the only type of crop subsidies that farmers are expected to get for the foreseeable future because of the sharp increases in soybean prices brought on by the surge in demand for biofuels. Although there was talk early on of cutting the fixed payments to fund other programs, the payments are left intact in the legislation.
Peterson and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) now are looking for time on the calendar for the whole House to consider the measure. Earlier, there were indications the proposed legislation could move to the House floor as early as July 26. It now appears more likely that the House will begin work on the bill the week of July 30, although other pressing House business could push consideration past the congressional summer recess and into September.
Peterson says he has a general commitment from Democratic leaders for floor time the week of July 30, just before the August recess. “It’s going to be on the floor, unless something blows up. And it will take about a day,” Peterson said. However, Pelosi said: “So much is on the table. I would hope to work on the farm bill. But we’ll still have to see how the schedule works out.”
Players In The Iowa Biodiesel Industry Form Their Own Organization
Biodiesel producers, marketers and soybean farmers have formed their own organization, separate from ethanol producers. The Iowa Biodiesel Board will be funded by soybean check-off money collected by the Iowa Soybean Association and by membership dues, said Randy Olson, executive director of the organization. Olson, who was senior marketing manager at the Iowa Soybean Association, said the board was created by demand from “the entire biodiesel chain” to promote biodiesel and work on industry issues and policies.
Iowa has 13 biodiesel plants in production with a capacity to produce 258.5 million gallons of biodiesel a year and three more under construction with a potential capacity of 95 million gallons.
Low Soymeal Stocks In Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia may become a prime import market for soymeal. Indian exports of soymeal are likely to fall to around 3.5 million tonnes in the crop year ending in September from 4.1m tonnes in the year to September 2006, according to Rajesh Agrawal of the Indian Soybean Processors’ Association. The high figures for the previous year are mainly because the country had large carryover stocks then.
“Right now, Southeast Asian countries have low stocks, whether it be Taiwan, Thailand or Indonesia,” Agrawal said. “The business will continue and there is no problem right now in the exporting of soymeal.” Soybean availability was tightening in those domestic markets as the current season draws to a close, he said.
High Palm Oil Prices Forcing Buyers To Switch To Other Oils
Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) prices are getting so high that producers are seeing buyers switch to other oils. Malaysia’s Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Peter Chin said last week, “Once the prices of CPO and palm olein are too high, there is a tendency for consumers to switch to other oils that are less expensive,” he said.
In the past CPO prices were typically lower than those of other oils. “But now the gap is closing. Because of that, there are cases of people switching to their traditional oils in Europe,” he added, pointing out that there has been a slight decrease in CPO exports to the EU.
In related news, Indonesia may have produced less palm oil than expected in the first half of the year after a drought in 2006 hindered the crop’s growth. Derom Bangun, president of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, said palm oil production appeared not to be on course to produce the previously estimated 17.2 million to 17.4 million tonnes this year and is contributing to current high prices.
Soy Complex Up As Energy Prices Support Soyoil
The soy complex was mostly higher on July 12 with gains for the products equally distributed between soymeal and oil as higher energy prices provided support for soyoil. The most important weather for determining soybean yields lies ahead. While U.S. production prospects have been the main influence on the soybean market, South America production remains a longer-term market factor. The eventual outcome of the U.S. soybean crop and the 2007-08 export outlook will have a lot to say about how much South American production is needed next year and how much South American area the market will try to buy this fall. August bean futures closed up $1.75, finishing at $314.52; September was $1.75 higher, closing at $317.14; and November was up $2.02, ending at $324.08. August meal increased $0.99 closing at $250.77; September was $0.99 higher, finishing at $254.19; and October gained $3.09 to close at $256.95. August oil closed $2.87 higher to finish at $829.59; September was up $3.09, closing at $836.43; and October gained $2.43, ending at $842.16.
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